煤(mei)电(dian)同增(zeng)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升每(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)月销(xiao)售(shou)营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升，喜爱全(quan)钒液流(liu)电(dian)池及(ji)改建煤(mei)厂，维(wei)护“加持”信(xin)用评(ping)估。有限(xian)(xian)机构上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)架2023 工(gong)(gong)商年(nian)(nian)(nian)报及(ji)2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)1个季报，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)有限(xian)(xian)机构确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)每(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)天的(de)(de)运营(ying)工(gong)(gong)资(zi)创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)301.2 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率-15.3%；确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)归母(mu)纯创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)22.7 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率+18.7%。在这中(zhong)用2023Q4 确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)每(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)天的(de)(de)运营(ying)工(gong)(gong)资(zi)创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)81.4 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)+1.8%，确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)归母(mu)纯创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)6.4 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)+5.0%。2024Q1有限(xian)(xian)机构确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)每(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)天的(de)(de)运营(ying)工(gong)(gong)资(zi)创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)73.2 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率+3.6%，确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)归母(mu)纯创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)4.7 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元，比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率+11.4%。来(lai)注意到2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)至今已有行业(ye)煤(mei)价下(xia)行带宽(kuan)，我国上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)(nian)投(tou)资(zi)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益预測并增(zeng)减2026 年(nian)(nian)(nian)投(tou)资(zi)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益预測，预期2024-2026 年(nian)(nian)(nian)确(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)归母(mu)纯创(chuang)收(shou)(shou)(shou)24.1/26.0/27.1 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元（2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)(nian)以前临(lin)界值25.1/26.6 上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)亿(yi)(yi)港元），比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为0.11/0.12/0.12 元，代表某些股(gu)票市(shi)值PE 为12.2/11.3/10.8 倍(bei)，有限(xian)(xian)机构煤(mei)电(dian)互补式经营(ying)管(guan)理(li)基本(ben)模式电(dian)子助(zhu)力每(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)月销(xiao)售(shou)营(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)、改建煤(mei)厂建筑中(zhong)用，全(quan)钒液流(liu)电(dian)池转变成长 值不值得期待的(de)(de)，维(wei)护“加持”信(xin)用评(ping)估。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)产供(gong)前景依(yi)(yi)然(ran)(ran)调(diao)理(li)，山(shan)西(xi)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭产供(gong)前景各用(yong)(yong)是(shi)为240/237 十万吨级，比(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)产供(gong)前景各用(yong)(yong)是(shi)为67/62 十万吨级，比(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。伴(ban)随2024 年(nian)(nian)1个(ge)(ge)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)季度(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)领域(yu)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)(jia)上行，2024Q1 总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)山(shan)西(xi)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭销售保险的(de)(de)业(ye)(ye)务毛(mao)(mao)(mao)毛(mao)(mao)(mao)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)(run)为12.3 亿港(gang)元，比(bi)-27.4%。总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分属湖北(bei)亿华海(hai)则滩煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿业(ye)(ye)新项目地属湖北(bei)省榆横采矿区(qu)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)种通常为好的(de)(de)蓝翔塑业(ye)(ye)有限平台(tai)所生产的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)及(ji)扭(niu)力(li)(li)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)，产品储(chu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 亿立(li)方米，总(zong)(zong)值发冷量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大卡及(ji)以上。该新项目峰(feng)值2026年(nian)(nian)三一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)季度(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)兼(jian)具出(chu)(chu)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)必要条件，2027 年(nian)(nian)达(da)(da)产。按(an)照总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)算(suan)卦，按(an)2023 年(nian)(nian)领域(yu)总(zong)(zong)值煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)(jia)开始算(suan)卦可(ke)(ke)达(da)(da)成(cheng)年(nian)(nian)开张(zhang)获得盈利约90 亿港(gang)元、净毛(mao)(mao)(mao)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)(run)率(lv)润(run)(run)约44 亿港(gang)元。魅(mei)力(li)(li)设(she)备销售保险的(de)(de)业(ye)(ye)务：2023 年(nian)(nian)魅(mei)力(li)(li)设(she)备销售保险的(de)(de)业(ye)(ye)务量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)升本减毛(mao)(mao)(mao)毛(mao)(mao)(mao)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)(run)强(qiang)势调(diao)理(li)，2024Q1 发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池用(yong)(yong)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)显(xian)示依(yi)(yi)然(ran)(ran)高增。2023 年(nian)(nian)总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)争取丹阳(yang)中鑫华海(hai)管理(li)权，增减一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)装(zhuang)机系(xi)统(tong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)储(chu)存(cun)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)20 诸多(duo)瓦，总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)用(yong)(yong)用(yong)(yong)魅(mei)力(li)(li)设(she)备控投(tou)总(zong)(zong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)装(zhuang)机系(xi)统(tong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)储(chu)存(cun)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)可(ke)(ke)达(da)(da)918 诸多(duo)瓦、持股总(zong)(zong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)键(jian)装(zhuang)机系(xi)统(tong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)储(chu)存(cun)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)可(ke)(ke)达(da)(da)400 诸多(duo)瓦。2023 年(nian)(nian)总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)发布出(chu)(chu)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池用(yong)(yong)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)显(xian)示各用(yong)(yong)是(shi)为373.5/353.9 亿KW时(shi)，比(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)领域(yu)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)(jia)上行致使(shi)总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)魅(mei)力(li)(li)设(she)备投(tou)入(ru)比(bi)-11.2%，毛(mao)(mao)(mao)毛(mao)(mao)(mao)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)(run)率(lv)增多(duo)17.6 个(ge)(ge)点至(zhi)10.7%，获得盈利专业(ye)(ye)能力(li)(li)幅(fu)度(du)(du)(du)调(diao)理(li)。2024Q1总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)发布出(chu)(chu)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池用(yong)(yong)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)显(xian)示各用(yong)(yong)是(shi)为100.0/94.7 亿KW时(shi)，比(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，我国峰(feng)值总(zong)(zong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)2024Q1 业(ye)(ye)绩报(bao)告比(bi)调(diao)理(li)通常出(chu)(chu)自于发布出(chu)(chu)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池用(yong)(yong)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)显(xian)示强(qiang)势上升。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

会(hui)加快结构(gou)全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂电(dian)板全(quan)行业链，我司(si)储(chu)蓄能量(liang)转型期(qi)(qi)会(hui)加快真(zhen)正落(luo)地。（1）全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂电(dian)板好业务(wu)构(gou)建(jian)：我司(si)所在区域张家港德泰储(chu)蓄能量(liang)辅助武器装(zhuang)备现有我司(si)1,000MW 全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂电(dian)板储(chu)蓄能量(liang)辅助武器装(zhuang)备研制工厂（新几(ji)期(qi)(qi)300MW）现已2023 年6 月(yue)底开(kai)始开(kai)工构(gou)建(jian)，预期(qi)(qi)2024 年春天(tian)度投入使用，预期(qi)(qi)新几(ji)期(qi)(qi)好业务(wu)达(da)引(yin)产后占当今世界市场中销(xiao)售额(e)10%。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶生(sheng)产的线(xian)构(gou)建(jian)：

机(ji)构相关(guan)敦煌市汇宏(hong)矿业单位制作(zuo)较少(shao)机(ji)构6000 吨/年(nian)高纯五阳极(ji)防(fang)氧化物(wu)(wu)二钒(fan)(fan)选冶出产线（1期(qi)3000 吨/年(nian)）已在2023 年(nian)6 月底动工制作(zuo)，人(ren)均2024 年(nian)四秀度投入使用。截止(zhi)近(jin)年(nian)为止(zhi)，该产线是国外单条人(ren)数上限(xian)、自功化的(de)程度高、场(chang)景最友好关(guan)系的(de)石(shi)煤提钒(fan)(fan)出产线，达(da)生产后将(jiang)占用国外石(shi)煤提钒(fan)(fan)20%以內(nei)市场(chang)中占比。同样机(ji)构凭借股份收(shou)购达(da)成了江苏(su)省石(shi)台(tai)县(xian)龙(long)岭钒(fan)(fan)矿挖矿权，加(jia)强了人(ren)均有品位0.93%、评定(ding)核(he)实(shi)134.74千(qian)吨的(de)五阳极(ji)防(fang)氧化物(wu)(wu)二钒(fan)(fan)信(xin)息量，近(jin)年(nian)为止(zhi)机(ji)构五阳极(ji)防(fang)氧化物(wu)(wu)二钒(fan)(fan)信(xin)息量达(da)标158.89 千(qian)吨。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。