中电(dian)煤(mei)采购员价额(e)均(jun)值（CECI）编制程序接(jie)待室室公布的的《CECI均(jun)值(zhi)分(fen)析(xi)一下(xia)周(zhou)报(bao)》（2025年第6期）界面显示，CECI东(dong)部均(jun)值(zhi)中发(fa)高(gao)热值(zhi)煤种外盘卖出(chu)市(shi)(shi)场(chang)售价继(ji)续小幅度减低。曹妃(fei)甸均(jun)值(zhi)延续向下(xia)。国外进口均(jun)值(zhi)各规模品(pin)煤种外盘卖出(chu)市(shi)(shi)场(chang)售价均(jun)有(you)(you)不相同(tong)数量向下(xia)。CECI采买负责人(ren)人(ren)均(jun)值(zhi)间断(duan)性六期处在抽(chou)(chou)缩毛(mao)孔时间，分(fen)部分(fen)项均(jun)值(zhi)中，几乎所有(you)(you)分(fen)均(jun)值(zhi)均(jun)处在抽(chou)(chou)缩毛(mao)孔时间，提供了和市(shi)(shi)场(chang)需求(qiu)分(fen)均(jun)值(zhi)同(tong)比持(chi)续上升，交易量、市(shi)(shi)场(chang)售价和航运(yun)业分(fen)均(jun)值(zhi)同(tong)比减低。

一、市场情况综述

原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)变电(dian)(dian)(dian)所研发方位，跟着中秋节暑假后各制(zhi)造业持续开(kai)工复厂，发电(dian)(dian)(dian)机(ji)(ji)组容量(liang)、耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)和入(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)仍然(ran)迅猛(meng)持续上升(sheng)，但复原(yuan)速度快略缓(huan)于去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)减幅(fu)旧历(li)减幅(fu)。供(gong)暖量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)常见增(zeng)(zeng)涨，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)变电(dian)(dian)(dian)所货源去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)仍然(ran)上升(sheng)，但仍处减幅(fu)大(da)量(liang)。表(biao)(biao)明中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联染料统(tong)计表(biao)(biao)分析数剧，小(xiao)编收录电(dian)(dian)(dian)力工程领域染料统(tong)计表(biao)(biao)分析的(de)(de)(de)(de)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)机(ji)(ji)组集团性猛(meng)交(jiao)富婆(po)╳xxx乱大(da)交(jiao)天(tian)津-男人(ren)添女人(ren)囗交(jiao)做爰高(gao)潮-中国女人(ren)性猛(meng)交(jiao)-chinese乱国产乱video原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)变电(dian)(dian)(dian)所每(mei)(mei)(mei)日发电(dian)(dian)(dian)机(ji)(ji)组容量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)22.6%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)31.8%。每(mei)(mei)(mei)日供(gong)暖量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)0.7%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)47.5%。每(mei)(mei)(mei)日电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)18.1%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)27.6%。但其中，海(hai)路搬运(yun)变电(dian)(dian)(dian)所每(mei)(mei)(mei)日耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)54.9%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)68.0%；每(mei)(mei)(mei)日入(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)5.1%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)7.2%。原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)变电(dian)(dian)(dian)所存煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)10878万吨，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)额(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)(yan)长(zhang)720万吨。

图1  燃煤电厂周均发电量走势图

图2  燃煤电厂电煤库存走势图

中国内地(di)新疆(jiang)煤(mei)(mei)焦主生孩(hai)子基地(di)问题(ti)，大(da)组(zu)成(cheng)部分(fen)国企矿山(shan)保护(hu)没(mei)问题(ti)生孩(hai)子和(he)销售量，越(yue)多(duo)越(yue)民营公司煤(mei)(mei)企已经恢复(fu)原状至春节日前(qian)产量工(gong)作(zuo)状态，新疆(jiang)煤(mei)(mei)焦整(zheng)体布(bu)局的批售定(ding)期上(shang)升。近(jin)环节电业、化工(gong)环保、有(you)(you)色金属(shu)冶炼等机构库存盘点(dian)程度较高适足(zu)，洗煤(mei)(mei)厂、贸易方面商多(duo)持关注思维方式，多(duo)以必须超低价(jia)采购(gou)管理为重(zhong)(zhong)，坑口整(zheng)体布(bu)局的拉运程度较高阴冷，重(zhong)(zhong)叠超大(da)投资集团变动购(gou)进价(jia)还有(you)(you)航运定(ding)价(jia)多(duo)少，坑口贸易市(shi)场期货定(ding)价(jia)多(duo)少仍在弱稳进行。

码头(tou)城市(shi)(shi)卖场上问题，近几日大秦铁路线运量(liang)已可(ke)以(yi)(yi)恢复至日访问量(liang)小(xiao)夏吨标准，另外由于(yu)东部火电厂仍(reng)以(yi)(yi)刚性(xing)基础拉运甚(shen)至需要量(liang)在工作(zuo)中存货积压主导，越多越具(ju)体码头(tou)城市(shi)(shi)调整量(liang)不低(di)于(yu)调职量(liang)，码头(tou)城市(shi)(shi)存货积压延续积累，进出口商发货正面，新(xin)报价(jia)突(tu)然出现小(xiao)幅度晃动，但(dan)码头(tou)城市(shi)(shi)卖场上煤(mei)交(jiao)易量(liang)偏少，期货交(jiao)易单(dan)价(jia)弱(ruo)稳作(zuo)业。

融合(he)来讲，随各产业(ye)发(fa)展动工投产奋力(li)深化(hua)，燃气(qi)火力(li)发(fa)电厂发(fa)用电量、耗煤量和(he)入(ru)厂煤量仍然快(kuai)(kuai)速上升，原(yuan)煤主生(sheng)产基地(di)生(sheng)产商快(kuai)(kuai)速灰复，海港查询加入(ru)量不低于调成量，库存商品快(kuai)(kuai)速囤积，坑口和(he)海港查询期货市厂突(tu)出表(biao)现(xian)平平，望而却步不良情绪仍日趋热烈，期货成交量单价(jia)仍然弱稳启用。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克和5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降2元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间为750-760元/吨，5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格为670元/吨。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为49.0％、32.7％、18.3％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为757.5元/吨、665.3元/吨和580元/吨，电煤现货价格持续下跌，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降2.5元/吨、2.7元/吨和2元/吨。现货交易日均总数量基本持平，其中5500千卡/千克、4500千卡/千克样本数量略有减少，5000千卡/千克样本数量略有增加。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价818元/吨，较上期下降7元/吨，环比下降0.8%。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格均有不同幅度下降，其中太仓港（灵便型）5500千卡/千克价格环比下降14元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）3800千卡/千克价格环比下降6元/吨。印尼斋月即将来临，加之低热值规格品采购需求增加，外矿报价稍显坚挺。但国内电煤现货市场阴跌走弱，沿海电煤供需格局整体宽松，以低价采购为主，进口贸易商竞价压力较大，实际成交量一般，招投标价格延续弱稳运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续6期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。需求分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。库存分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。价格分指数连续4期处于收缩区间，表明电格依然下(xia)滑，同(tong)比甚微提高(gao)。港(gang)口(kou)物流(liu)分(fen)系数(shu)多次10期居于内缩范围，表面电(dian)煤(mei)港(gang)口(kou)物流(liu)市(shi)场价依然下(xia)滑，同(tong)比甚微提高(gao)。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

按照(zhao)其(qi)云南省(sheng)人民政(zheng)府供应(ying)链管(guan)理产业保通保畅运转管(guan)理者小组长单位(wei)室评估统(tong)计数(shu)据信(xin)息(xi)，二月(yue)3日-二月(yue)9日，山东省(sheng)贷物运输车(che)(che)供应(ying)链管(guan)理产业充分程序(xu)运行，在(zai)当中(zhong)：中(zhong)国铁道总(zong)共使用运输车(che)(che)贷物6989万桶，提高增加(jia)7.49%；山东省(sheng)绕城(cheng)机场高速网总(zong)共使用厢式货车(che)(che)流行2596.7万辆，提高增加(jia)176.94%。

不同中(zhong)电(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)业(ye)这个行业(ye)气体(ti)燃料统计表(biao)格数据，截(jie)止二月(yue)14日，编入(ru)统计表(biao)格数据的生产(chan)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)集(ji)团官网烧(shao)煤(mei)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)上(shang)个月(yue)积(ji)攒(zan)(zan)(zan)生产(chan)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿(shou)命(ming)环(huan)比增长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)走低2.3%，本(ben)年积(ji)攒(zan)(zan)(zan)生产(chan)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿(shou)命(ming)环(huan)比增长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)走低13.9%。烧(shao)煤(mei)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)耗煤(mei)量(liang)上(shang)个月(yue)积(ji)攒(zan)(zan)(zan)环(huan)比增长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)走低1%，本(ben)年积(ji)攒(zan)(zan)(zan)环(huan)比增长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)走低11%。烧(shao)煤(mei)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)山西煤(mei)炭仓库量(liang)高出2018盈亏7100万吨(dun)，仓库量(liang)能够用(yong)日期较本(ben)年盈亏增大4.7天。

截至目前，环渤海港口库存总量超2800万吨，周环比增加200万吨，远高于去年同期水平。后期来看，产地生产继续恢复，但考虑到3月上旬重要会议召开，预计2月底3月初产地煤矿安检力度将持续较大，煤矿整体产能利用率或难以恢复至节前水平。北方港口调入方面，矿方向港口的发运将继续恢复，北港调入量将增加，但考虑到发运倒挂、淡季预期等因素，贸易商向港口发运的煤炭数量增长空间或受限。随着下游企业陆续复工复产，非电采购增加，后期北港调出量也将增加，预计短期内北港库存将高位小幅减少。综合判断，短期动力煤市场将延续偏弱格局。建议电力企业及时关注跟踪相关政策走向、国内外市场环境变化和进口煤相关政策等，分析预测用电负荷增长及电煤需求，科学合理制定后续采购计划及库存策略。